Zambrano returns to rotation in finale with Bucs

Baseball Betting Lines

06/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs hope to get a needed spark from Carlos Zambrano when the fiery pitcher returns to a starting role for tonight's finale of a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates from PNC Park.

Zambrano, a three-time National League All-Star who's averaged better than 14 wins over the past seven seasons, was shifted to the bullpen in late April after going 1-2 with a subpar 7.45 earned run average in four starts. The excitable Venezuelan has pitched significantly better as a reliever lately, having not allowed a run in any of his last five appearances, which prompted manager Lou Piniella to insert him back in the rotation in place of the struggling Tom Gorzelanny.

The accomplished right-hander is 11-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 29 lifetime games (25 starts) against Pittsburgh, but was dealt a loss by the Pirates in relief back on May 14 after giving up a go-ahead three-run homer to Garrett Jones in the eighth inning.

Piniella hopes the switch can help his club solve its continued recent struggles against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have won seven of the eight matchups between the NL Central foes this season, including the first two tests of this three-game set, and are 9-1 in their last 10 encounters with the Cubs. Chicago has lost all five of its games played in the Steel City so far this year as well.

Pittsburgh's mastery of the Cubs continued with last night's 3-2 decision, in which the Bucs went in front on Neil Walker's two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning.

With the Pirates trailing 2-1, Andrew McCutchen drew a one-out walk off Cubs starter Ted Lilly and Walker followed by clubbing an 0-1 pitch over the fence in left for his first major league home run.

"I thought [Lilly] was about to get pulled," Walker said. "I didn't think he was going to face me. Fortunately I had three terrible at-bats against him, so I think that's one of the reasons he stayed in the game. I wanted to be aggressive there, I got a pitch over the plate and I was able to drive it."

Jones also homered in the win and finished 2-for-4 for Pittsburgh, which had lost five in a row prior to rallying for a 2-1 decision in Monday's opener of this series. Octavio Dotel worked a 1-2-3 ninth for his 12th save of the season.

The Cubs suffered their third straight defeat and now have dropped five of their last seven tilts to fall to a disappointing 24-29 on the season.

"It's frustrating on everyone," said outfielder Xavier Nady, who went 4-for-4 and accounted for all of Chicago's scoring with a two-run homer in the third inning. "You plan on getting big hits and getting things going. But offensively, we're not doing it, there's no way around it.

Lilly (1-5) worked 7 2/3 innings and surrendered all three runs on six hits, while striking out six and walking four.

While the Pirates have enjoyed great success against the Cubs as of late, that trend hasn't carried over to Zach Duke's starts in this series. The left- hander has lost eight consecutive decisions to Chicago and is winless in his last 13 starts versus the Cubs, having last topped the club back on May 2, 2006.

Duke will also be seeking to bounce back from an awful performance his last time out, when the 2009 All-Star was rocked for seven runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Atlanta last Friday. He had been very sharp in his previous two outings, yielding just two runs -- one earned -- over a combined 13 frames in a May 18 win at Philadelphia and a no-decision against the Braves five days later.

The 27-year-old, who's 4-8 with a 3.67 ERA in 17 career starts against Chicago, has compiled a 3-5 mark with a 5.09 ERA in 11 games this season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.