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09/07/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Gonzalez, arguably the league's hottest hitter, blasted an early three-run homer to help lift the streaking Colorado Rockies to a 4-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds.
Gonzalez extended his hit streak to 15 with his 32nd home run, and the Rockies won for the fifth straight game to close to within four games of first-place San Diego, which is currently playing Los Angeles. Gonzalez, who jumped into the Triple Crown race, has 31 hits in his last 59 at-bats with seven homers and 21 RBI.
The former Oakland and Arizona farmhand currently leads the National League with a .340 batting average and 100 RBI, but trails Albert Pujols by three home runs.
Miguel Olivo added three hits and an RBI, while Jhoulys Chacin (8-9) allowed two runs on six hits in six innings to earn the win. Huston Street picked up his 16th save, as the Rockies won for the eighth straight time over Cincinnati at Coors Field.
Drew Stubbs hit a two-run single, while Jonny Gomes homered for the Reds, who have lost four of five but still lead the Cardinals by six games in the NL Central after St. Louis lost to Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Johnny Cueto (12-5) allowed four runs -- three earned -- on seven hits and two walks in six innings to take the loss.
Gonzalez's incredible stretch continued in the opening inning.
Eric Young Jr. and Dexter Fowler opened the game with consecutive singles, and Gonzalez made it count with a three-run blast to left for an early lead.
The Reds didn't get on the board until a mental mistake by the Rockies in the fourth.
With runners on first and second and two outs, Ramon Hernandez hit a ground ball toward the third baseman Melvin Mora. Instead of throwing to first to get the slow runner in Hernandez, Mora attempted to run and tag third, but Joey Votto beat the play. Stubbs followed with his single for a one-run game.
An error by Brandon Phillips helped Colorado increase its lead to 4-2 in the sixth. With two outs and nobody on base, Seth Smith hit a weak ground ball to Phillips, who couldn't handle it. Olivo followed with a line drive in the left-centerfield gap, scoring Smith on the double.
Matt Belisle maintained the Rockies' lead with a scoreless seventh, but Rafael Betancourt allowed a two-out solo homer to Gomes to make it a 4-3 game heading to the ninth.
Street pitched around a two-out single in the ninth to polish off the win.
Game Notes
The Reds' last win at Coors Field came on August 22, 2008...Young Jr. had two hits and a stolen base for Colorado...Both starting pitchers struck out five...Chacin threw 72 of his 107 pitches for strikes...Phillips' error was his first in 63 games since May 17.
<< Broncos RB White has Achilles surgery
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos running back LenDale White
underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon.
The Denver Post reported Tuesday that White had the procedure done as the
Steadman-Hawkins Clinic in Col
<< Clijsters and Williams to clash in the semifinals
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champions Kim Clijsters
and Venus Williams advanced to the semifinals of the U.S. Open Tuesday night.
The two will face off against one another on Friday.
Clijsters, the 2005 and 2009
<< Hoffman picks up 600th save as Brewers hold off Cards
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Casey McGehee's two-run single in the fifth
inning proved to be the difference, as the Milwaukee Brewers held off the St.
Louis Cardinals, 4-2, on a night that saw all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman
record
<< Bourn, Astros top Cubs
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Bourn finished 3-for-4 with three RBI
and fell a home run shy of the cycle as Houston downed Chicago, 7-3, in the
middle test of a three-game set from Wrigley Field.
Jeff Keppinger had a pair of
Angels release longtime utilityman Quinlan >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels cut ties with utilityman
Robb Quinlan, who has been with the team since 2003.
Quinlan has played sparingly this year, recording only four hits in 33 at-
bats. Never a starter but
Latos sets MLB record as Padres top Dodgers >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mat Latos tossed seven innings of one-run
baseball to set an MLB record, as the San Diego Padres defeated the Los
Angeles Dodgers, 2-1, in the second test of a three-game series at Petco Park.
Lato
Mariners hold off A's >>
Oakland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ichiro Suzuki registered two more hits in his quest
for his 10th consecutive 200-hit season and drove in a run, as Seattle held
off Oakland, 7-5, hampering the Athletics in their attempt to gain ground in
the AL
Nadal cruises into QFs; Verdasco rallies to shock Ferrer >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Nadal breezed in three sets
over fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez Tuesday and moved into the quarterfinals
at the U.S. Open, the only Grand Slam tournament the current world No. 1 has
yet to
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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