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07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The finale of the series between the New York Yankees and the Kansas City Royals could be a historic one, as Alex Rodriguez comes into the matchup one home run shy of becoming the seventh member of the 600 home run club.
Rodriguez has hit memorable homers against the Royals in the past, as the illustrious third baseman clubbed his first-ever homer and his 500th long ball against Kansas City.
A long ball from A-Rod might be needed in today's matchup, as the Yankees' starting pitcher Phil Hughes is scuffling through a major slump. In his last four starts the hard-throwing right-hander has surrendered 19 runs in 23 2/3 innings. Hughes has been pounded for 31 hits during that span, and that includes six home runs.
The last time the young hurler took the hill he was battered by the Angels, allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks. It was just the second home loss on the year for Hughes, who despite winning six of his 10 starts at Yankee Stadium, also possesses a meager 5.22 ERA in front of the home crowd.
Surprisingly the Royals have dominated Hughes in his young career. In three appearances -- two starts -- against KC, he has allowed nine runs on 13 hits and six walks in 8 2/3 innings.
The Royals will turn to newly acquired Sean O'Sullivan this afternoon. O'Sullivan came over in a trade with the Angels that sent Alberto Callaspo to Anaheim. Before being traded O'Sullivan made his first start on the year for the Angels, and ironically that came against Hughes and New York.
The California native received 10 runs in support and handled his business on the mound, holding the Yankees to just two runs in six innings. That was the first-ever meeting for the young hurler against the Bronx Bombers.
On Saturday, Scott Podsednik went 3-for-4, scored once and drove in a run, leading Kansas City to a 7-4 win. Jose Guillen added his 16th homer and drove in two runs, while Rick Ankiel also had two RBI for the Royals, who won for only the third time in 12 games overall.
Kyle Davies (5-6) recorded his first win since May 28th, going eight starts without one, after yielding four runs, seven hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings. Joakim Soria locked down his 27th save.
Mark Teixeira blasted two homers and drove in three for the Yankees, who fell to 5-3 on a nine-game homestand. Jorge Posada also homered in defeat.
Rodriguez, sitting on 599 career homers and facing Davies, off whom he belted his 500th home run, went 1-for-4 with an infield single.
Sergio Mitre (0-2) made his first start since May 16 and gave up seven runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in 4 1/3 frames. He is filling in for Andy Pettitte, who is expected to be out about a month with an injured groin.
Despite the loss the Yankees still own a commanding 16-5 ledger against the Royals at home.
<< Tigers place Ordonez, Guillen on disabled list
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers have placed outfielder
Magglio Ordonez and second baseman Carlos Guillen on the 15-day disabled list
after both players were injured during Saturday's 3-2 loss.
Ordonez fractured his
<< Golubev wins Hamburg title
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrey Golubev has won his first title in
his second career final, beating third-seeded Austrian Jurgen Melzer 6-3, 7-5
on Sunday at the German Open.
Golubev, who did not lose a set this week, becam
<< Goerges claims first WTA crown in Bad Gastein
Bad Gastein, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Julia Goerges of Germany beat
Switzerland's Timea Bacsinszky 6-1, 6-4 in the final of the Gastein Ladies
tennis tournament.
The second-seeded Bacsinszky had to wait until Sunday mornin
<< Padres rock Pirates in Latos' return
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Everth Cabrera and Oscar Salazar each drove
in two runs and Mat Latos was solid in his return from the disabled list, as
the San Diego Padres dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates, 9-2, in the second test
of a th
Tigers, Blue Jays play two at Comerica >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Due to the postponement of the contest on Friday, the fans
at Comerica Park will get a double dose of baseball this afternoon when the
Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their four-game series with a
traditional dou
Braves, Marlins play rubber match in South Beach >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jair Jurrjens tries to win his fourth straight decision
this afternoon when the Atlanta Braves close out a three-game series with the
Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.
Jurrjens has gone 3-0 in his four starts since ret
Padres hope to get the brooms out in Pittsburgh >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres will try to complete a three-game
sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon at PNC Park.
The Padres won for the sixth time in eight games since the All-Star break on
Saturday, as Everth Cabrera an
Happ returns to Phils to face Rockies >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former rookie sensation J.A. Happ takes the mound for the
first time since April today, when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado
Rockies in the third test of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park.
On Saturday, J
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
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