ACC heavyweights square off in Chapel Hill

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Chapel Hill, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports adds another chapter to its storied history this evening, as the 10th- ranked Duke Blue Devils and fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels square off in ACC action at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils are once again among the ACC's elite, but have little room for error the rest of the way as they are coming off a heart- wrenching 78-74 overtime loss to Miami-Florida at home this past weekend. The loss halted a three-game win streak for Duke and dropped it into third place in the ACC, trailing both North Carolina and Florida State by a game in the standings.

Roy Williams' Tar Heels have had to face their own adversity of late, losing a key starter to injury when Dexter Strickland went down with a torn ACL. Depth has been the key for UNC however, as the team has strung together five straight victories to move to 7-1 in-conference. Most recently, North Carolina dropped Maryland in College Park, 83-74.

North Carolina is one of the few teams with a winning record against Duke. The Tar Heels are up 131-101 in a series that dates back to 1920. The Blue Devils have won four of the last five meetings however, including a 75-58 decision in last year's ACC Championship Game. The two schools close out the regular season against one another in Durham on March 3rd.

The Blue Devils fought back from a 16-point second-half deficit to force overtime, but could not sustain it in the extra session, falling at home for the second time in the last three games at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Guards Seth Curry and Austin Rivers led the way in defeat with 22 and 20 points, respectively. Mason Plumlee struggled offensively with just six points, but managed to grab a game-high 13 rebounds.

Duke is at its best when it gets a balanced effort at the offensive end of the floor. The team is averaging almost 80 points per game (79.8), behind a healthy .482 shooting. Four players are averaging double figures coming into this contest, led by Rivers' 14.5 ppg. The standout freshman is followed in the scoring column by Ryan Kelly and Curry at 12.6 ppg each. Mason Plumlee headlines the play down low, averaging a near double-double with 11.6 points and a team-high 9.7 rebounds per game. Plumlee, who is delivering on nearly 60 percent from the floor (.592), ranks second in the ACC in rebounding. Andre Dawkins (9.7 ppg) is inching closer to double digits, as he is the team's top threat from long range, hitting 51-of-125 from behind the arc.

There aren't many teams that can match Duke's offensive proficiency, but North Carolina is one of them. The Tar Heels lead the nation in scoring at 84.1 ppg, and possess three of the ACC's top nine scorers and two of the top three rebounders. UNC boasts of the nation's premier frontcourt, as Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller are a dominating trio. Barnes can score from anywhere on the floor and ranks third in the league at 17.3 ppg. Zeller (15.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and Henson (14.3 ppg, ACC-leading 10.0 rpg) are a devastating duo around the rim. Kendall Marshall isn't much of a scorer (6.5 ppg), but is as good as any point guard in the nation in getting his teammates involved, ranking second nationally with 9.8 apg.

Zeller led the way in the recent win over Maryland with 22 points. Barnes poured in 18, while Henson recorded a double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds. Reggie Bullock added 11 points to round out the double-digit scorers. Marshall just missed a double-double, finishing with nine points, while dishing out an impressive 16 assists.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.